^{Source: Getty Images}

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has issued a stark warning that the U.S. economy may already be slipping into a recession — or is perilously close to doing so.

Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Friday, Fink emphasized the growing signs of economic weakness. “We’re very close to a recession, if not already in one,” he said, echoing concerns that have gained momentum amid increasing geopolitical tensions and economic policy instability.

Economic Anxiety on the Rise: What’s Fueling the Fear

The recent turbulence began with former President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs. These levies triggered an immediate downturn in the stock market, shaving off hundreds of billions in market capitalization. Despite Trump’s mid-week move to delay some of those tariffs for 90 days, investor confidence remains deeply shaken.

Fink warned that this delay only prolongs uncertainty rather than resolves it. “We now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that doesn’t reduce the risk, it elevates it. Businesses don’t make long-term decisions when policy is unclear,” Fink said. This sentiment has echoed throughout the business world, with numerous CEOs reportedly aligning with Fink’s cautious outlook.

Surveys & Signals: A Conflicted Economic Picture

Consumer confidence and business leader sentiment have taken noticeable hits. For example:

• The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped from 79.4 in February to 76.5 in March — a notable dip reflecting growing pessimism.
• CEO confidence, as reported by The Conference Board, is at its lowest level since 2020.

However, some hard economic data is still holding up:

• U.S. job growth added 303,000 jobs in March, beating expectations.
• Retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, indicating some resilience among consumers.

Fink, however, offers a deeper layer of analysis: he believes these numbers could be misleading. “Consumers may be front-loading purchases to get ahead of potential price hikes from tariffs,” he said, suggesting that the retail strength might not be sustainable.

BlackRock’s Position in the Market

Despite these economic headwinds, BlackRock posted mixed results in its Q1 financial report:

• Adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $11.30, beating the LSEG consensus estimate of $10.14.
• Revenue: $5.28 billion, falling short of expectations by roughly $60 million.
• Net inflows: $84 billion in Q1, bringing total assets under management to a record $11.58 trillion.

Shares of BlackRock ticked up slightly — less than 1% in early trading — showing some market resilience in the face of economic doubt.

Megatrends May Provide Long-Term Strength

Fink was careful to distinguish between a cyclical recession and a financial crisis. “This isn’t 2008,” he said. “We’re not looking at systemic collapse — we’re looking at a temporary slowdown in growth.”

He remains optimistic about structural trends in the economy, particularly the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and digital innovation. “AI, clean energy, and demographic shifts are megatrends that will continue shaping the future regardless of short-term turbulence,” he added.

Broader Reactions: Other Experts Weigh In

Fink isn’t alone in his analysis. Several economists and executives have echoed similar concerns:

• JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently remarked that "storm clouds" are gathering over the global economy, citing geopolitical instability and inflation risks.
• The IMF, in its April 2025 outlook, downgraded U.S. growth projections to 1.2% for the year, down from 2.1% in 2024.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model also sharply reduced its Q2 growth estimate from 2.8% to 1.3% in just three weeks.

The Road Ahead Remains Uncertain

While the U.S. isn’t in a full-blown crisis, there’s no denying that momentum is slowing and risks are mounting. Fink’s warning, grounded in both BlackRock’s data and broader CEO sentiment, underscores a critical moment for policymakers, investors, and business leaders.

Until there is more clarity on trade policy, inflation direction, and interest rates, expect cautious behavior from the private sector and increased volatility in the markets. As Fink noted, “Uncertainty is the enemy of growth — and right now, we have plenty of it.”

‍