^{JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images)}

In a frank and timely warning to Wall Street, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, said he anticipates a significant downward revision in S&P 500 earnings forecasts as corporations increasingly suspend their financial guidance due to growing global uncertainty — particularly tied to U.S. trade policy and market volatility.

Speaking during the bank’s Q1 earnings call, Dimon highlighted that many companies have already begun retracting their forward-looking statements. He believes this trend will accelerate in the coming weeks as more firms come to terms with an increasingly difficult business environment.

Dimon: Analysts' Projections Already Down — and Could Fall Further

Dimon revealed that Wall Street analysts have already trimmed S&P 500 earnings growth estimates by roughly 5%. But he doesn’t think that’s the end of the decline.

“I think you’ll see that come down some more,” he told reporters on the call.

In a later follow-up, he forecasted a more dire trajectory: analysts’ current +5% earnings growth projections for the S&P 500 may drop to flat or even a negative 5% within the next month, depending on how macroeconomic trends play out.

This projection, if it materializes, would represent a dramatic shift in market expectations and potentially rattle investor confidence further.

Worsening Outlook Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions

The backdrop for this cautious sentiment is a volatile economic landscape, driven by a spike in geopolitical and trade uncertainty. Markets have swung wildly since former President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on multiple U.S. trading partners, most notably China.

The resulting instability has pushed companies into risk-averse mode, halting large investment decisions and delaying mergers and acquisitions, especially across the middle-market sector, according to Dimon.

“People are pulling back on deals — not just big ones,” he said. “Even mid-sized firms are exercising caution about investment decisions.”

Corporate America Is Pulling Back on Guidance

While JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum maintained that the bank has no immediate plans to retract its own guidance — contingent on economic and interest rate movements — he acknowledged a broad trend:

“This level of policy uncertainty makes it very hard for businesses to plan for the long term.”

Barnum added that many companies are pivoting from long-term strategic planning to short-term optimization, particularly when it comes to supply chains, logistics, and cost control.

Several major firms — including Walmart, Delta Air Lines, and Frontier Airlines — have already scaled back their outlooks in response to supply disruptions, rising input costs, and softening consumer sentiment.

Consumer Behavior Shows Mixed Signals

Interestingly, Barnum noted that while business investment is stalling, the consumer sector has shown resilience.
In fact, some signs suggest that U.S. consumers accelerated purchases in Q1 due to fears that tariffs would soon raise prices, particularly on imported goods like electronics and household items.

Still, the bank's executives warned that consumer strength alone may not be enough to offset broader weakness in corporate investment and international trade activity.

Looking Ahead: An Earnings Season Under Pressure

As earnings season rolls forward over the next few weeks, Wall Street will be closely monitoring:

• Which companies pull or revise guidance, especially in sectors sensitive to tariffs (tech, retail, logistics).
• How S&P 500 earnings revisions trend over the coming month — will Dimon's prediction of negative growth materialize?
• Corporate commentary on macro risks, such as trade policy, interest rates, and global instability.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs recently projected that full-year S&P 500 EPS could fall below $220, a significant downward revision from previous expectations of $235–$240, citing “policy-driven volatility and decelerating global demand.”

Bottom Line: The Era of Guidance May Be Fading

As Jamie Dimon warned, more companies are stepping back from offering specific financial forecasts — a sign that even corporate giants are uncertain about what lies ahead. For investors, this growing fog may mean greater volatility, more caution, and a closer watch on real-time economic indicators over traditional corporate roadmaps.

In today’s rapidly shifting landscape, even the most powerful CEOs are navigating uncharted skies.

‍