^{Source: Punch Newspapers}

Global Economic Outlook Dims

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global growth forecast for 2025 downward to 2.8%, a decrease from the previous estimate of 3.3%. This adjustment reflects the adverse effects of heightened trade tensions, particularly stemming from the United States' recent tariff implementations. ​

Major Asian Economies Hit Hard

China

China's growth projection for 2025 has been reduced to 4.0%, down from the earlier forecast of 4.6%. This decline is attributed to the country's heavy reliance on exports, which are now hampered by increased tariffs and global trade uncertainties. ​

India

India's economy is now expected to grow by 6.2% in 2025, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 6.5%. While domestic consumption remains strong, external factors such as global trade disruptions are exerting downward pressure on growth. ​

Japan

Japan's growth forecast has been significantly lowered to 0.6% for 2025, reflecting challenges in both domestic demand and export markets. ​

ASEAN Economies Also Affected

The IMF has also downgraded growth projections for the ASEAN-5 countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—to 4.0% for 2025, down from 4.6%. Thailand, in particular, faces the steepest decline, with its growth forecast cut to 1.8%, the lowest among the group. ​‍

Trade Tensions and Tariff Impacts

The United States has implemented tariffs as high as 145% on certain imports, prompting retaliatory measures from trading partners, including China, which has imposed tariffs up to 125% on U.S. goods. These actions have disrupted global supply chains and increased economic uncertainty. ​

Global Trade Growth Slows

The IMF projects that global trade growth will slow to 1.7% in 2025, a significant drop from 3.8% in the previous year. This deceleration is largely due to the ongoing trade disputes and the resulting impact on international commerce. ​

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The IMF's latest forecasts underscore the vulnerability of major Asian economies to global trade tensions. As protectionist policies gain traction, the ripple effects are being felt across the region, highlighting the need for collaborative solutions to restore confidence and stability in the global economy.

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